September 3, 2007

Blowing My Own Trumpet:

How many economists have been honest enough to stand up and admit they were wrong? Maybe a handful, the majority have either gone very quiet or are still clutching at straws. Yet back in August 2005 economists everywhere were confidently predicting a "soft landing" for the US housing market.

Back in August 2005, I was one of the few to identify the early signs of the bursting of the housing bubble, and I wrote about it in my article: "The Silence Of A Bursting Bubble ". Here's a quote from that article:

"But with the housing sector stock prices (not house prices) being the first domino to fall a different scenario could play out: the housing sector stocks are down 30-40% in two months time (like techs in 2000), Fannie May and Freddie Mac plunge, and the whole banking sector looks decidedly weak. Banking executives become worried and glum, lay off staff and tighten credit. Less credit means less buyers. Less buyers means house prices begin to decline."

Apart from a dumb assumption I made regarding timing, we have now seen all this unfold.

Fast-forward to November 2006, and I posted a quiz that only drew a paltry 10 responses (we're going to smash that record this time!). The quiz was titled "What follows the housing market down?" and had three main options: retail sales, gold price, or the banking sector - as well as "all the above" and "none of the above" options.

The small group of responders apparently thought things were about to get bad fast as they chose "all the above" as their favored response. WRONG! Retail sales and gold have continued to trend upwards. The first paragraph on the quiz page included a mention that my next article would be titled "Is Banking Tanking?" (published December 2006, almost 3 months before banking's decline began). This was a BIG CLUE about my favored answer. I was right again.

Crush The Guru!

OK, so now I have a swollen ego and need to be brought down a peg or two. Here's your chance. I've made this really hard on myself: todays quiz has 12 possible answers and I'm going to clearly state my favored one. I'm almost bound to be wrong, so here's your chance to crush the guru and show that others know what's about to unfold better than I do.

Win Free Trading Signals

Just send in your email address and complete the quiz before the end of September and you're in the draw for six months of free trading signals for spot forex and market indexes from around the globe. To read more about the trading signals, go here:

www.TrendSensor.com/#Trial

- then click on the "Learn more" links to view trading history and backtesting results.

So Here's Today's Quiz:

What Follows The Banking Sector Down?

1. Retail Sales

2. Spot Gold

3. Employment

4. Inflation

5. The whole economy

6. The stock market

7. The US Dollar

8. Hedge Funds

9. All the above will occur simultaneously.

10. None of the above

11. Options 6 and 8 together

12. Options 1, 3, 6 and 8 together

Place your vote and read more about the options, including useful clues and my favored response at:

www.TrendSensor.com/MarketBrief/current-quiz/

Good Luck!

PS: You only have until Sunday September 30th, 2007 to vote and enter the draw for six months of free trading signals.